中国物价波动对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于省际面板数据分位数回归  

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of China’s Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth:Based on Quantile Regression of Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：任燕燕[1] 王娜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东省经济管理干部学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《当代财经》2013年第8期5-15,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于复杂面板数据模型的物价波动研究"(12BTJ015);教育部人文社会科学基金项目"复杂面板数据的系统建模及应用研究"(12YJA790107)

摘　　要：选取27个省份1985-2011年的面板数据,使用门限回归模型计算出通货膨胀影响经济增长的门限值是4.2%和6.6%;利用面板分位数回归模型,针对不同的经济增长水平,分析了不同程度的通货膨胀对经济增长的影响。结论为:随着经济增长率的提高,低、中、高三种通货膨胀对经济增长的正向影响都是逐渐增加的,其中低通货膨胀对经济增长的推动作用最为显著;不同经济增长水平和不同通货膨胀水平的组合会产生不同的效果,要根据经济增长水平的不同情况具体分析。By selecting the panel data from 27 provinces from 1985 to 2011, this study adopts the threshold regression model to calculate the threshold value of the impact of inflation on economic growth, which is 4.2% and 6.6%. Then it employs the panel quantile regression model to analyze the impact of different levels of inflation on economic growth against different levels of economic growth. The conclusion arrived is that with the improvement of economic growth, the positive impact of infla- tion with lower, medium and higher levels on economic growth is increasing gradually, in which the lower inflation plays a most significant role in promoting the economic growth. The combination of different levels of economic growth and different levels of inflation will produce different results; therefore, specific analysis should be made according to the different situations of different levels of economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 通货膨胀 面板数据 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]