ARIMA模型在东莞市细菌性痢疾预测中的应用  

Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting bacillary dysentery in Dongguan City

作　　者：张泽武[1] 卢展鹏[1] 曾耀明[1] 钟新光[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省东莞市疾病预防控制中心,广东东莞523129

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2013年第4期43-45,共3页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨ARIMA模型在东莞市细菌性痢疾发病预测的可行性和适用性,为东莞市细菌性痢疾的防控提供参考依据。方法使用SPSS 17.0对2004年1月至2012年4月东莞市细菌性痢疾发病率资料拟合ARIMA模型,利用所得到的模型对东莞市2012年5～7月细菌性痢疾发病率进行预测评价。结果 ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值基本吻合,且实际值都在95%可信区间内。结论 ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12模型较好地反映了东莞市细菌性痢疾发病趋势,可作为东莞市细菌性痢疾发病水平短期预测模型。Objective To explore the feasibility of the application of Autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model to forecast the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city,and to provide basis for prevention and control.Methods SPSS 13.0 was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city from January 2005 to April 2012.Thereafter,the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of dysentery from May to Junly in 2012,and the forecast result was compared with the actual incidence.Results The model of the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city was ARIMA（0,0,1）（0,1,1） 12.The forecast monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery from May to Junly in 2012 consisted with the actual situation.Conclusion The ARIMA（0,0,1）（0,1,1） 12 model is appropriate in short-term forecasting of the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]