近50年长江中下游地区降水特征分析  

An analysis on precipitation characteristics over middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in the last 50 years

作　　者：何书樵[1] 郑有飞[2] 尹继福[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2013年第7期1187-1192,共6页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B05);江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(CXZZ12_0499);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室项目(KLME05005)

摘　　要：极端降水事件是导致长江流域洪涝灾害的主要原因之一,分析其变化趋势可为该地区的生态建设提供重要的参考信息。利用1960—2011年长江中下游地区(湖北、湖南、江苏、安徽、江西、浙江)84个气象站逐日降水资料,基于线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析法及EOF方法,分析了该地区近50年降水时空分布特征。结果表明:长江中下游地区近50年来降水呈上升趋势,但不显著;除降水强度外,各降水指数均呈上升趋势,其中大雨天数和日最大降水量上升趋势较显著;在年代际尺度上,各指数呈10年/20年周期震荡,在年际尺度上,各降水指数变化周期差异较大;降水强度突变现象发生于2000年,其他指数突变主要出现在1970年;EOF前三种模态,能够较好的表达大雨天数空间分布特征,其中一致性异常是其主要空间模态。Extreme climate events often cause damages to society and ecosystems,and the impacts of extreme precipitation events are of the most critical reasons causing devastating floods of the Yangtze Basin.Therefore,variations trends in extreme precipitation events need to be reasonably assessed,which can provide meaningful information on regional ecological conservation.Based on the daily precipitation data derived from 84 gauge stations over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River from 1960 to 2011,The spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation are investigated according to tendency analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test and Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） method.The results show that,in past 50 years,all of precipitation indices present increasing tendency except precipitation intensity,and both of the number of heavy precipitation days and maximum 1-day precipitation increase obviously;on the inter-decadal timescale,it significantly demonstrates a 10-year/20-year oscillation period;the mutations mainly appear in 1970 except that for precipitation intensity happened in 2000;the first,second and third modal of EOF can perfectly present the spatial distribution characteristics of the number of heavy precipitation days;the consistent anomaly distribution is the main spatial model over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

关 键 词：降水指数 时空分布特征 长江中下游地区 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]