灰色系统残差预测模型软件的研制与应用  

APPLICATION OF RESIDUAL ERROR FORECASTING SOFTWARE FOR GREY SYSTEM

作　　者：鄢子平[1] 张庆涛[2] 李振洪[3] 丁学智[4] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学自然科学学报,武汉430072 [2]国家测绘地理信息局第一大地测量队,西安710054 [3]格拉斯哥大学地理与地球科学系 [4]中国水电顾问集团昆明勘测设计研究院,昆明650041

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2013年第4期117-119,141,共4页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

摘　　要：基于灰色系统GM(1,1)残差模型编制了GMRCFS预测软件,并对隔河岩大坝1998-06-10—11-28日5个GPS监测点的形变进行了预测。结果表明,GM(1,1)残差模型具有较高的预测精度,合理选取预测步长可达到大坝形变预测的要求。A forecasting software titled GMRCFS has been developed based on the GM （ 1,1 ） residual error model of grey system, and deformation of Geheyan dam has been predicted by five GPS monitoring sites on June 10 to November 28 in 1998. The results show that the GM（ 1,1 ） residual error model has high accuracy, it could sat- isfy the demand of dam deformation forecasting if a step size is chozen reasonably.

关 键 词：灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 残差 形变预测 大坝形变 

分 类 号：P207[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]