出行弹性概念及其应用  

Conception of Travel Elasticity and Its Application

作　　者：云美萍[1] 张元[2] 周源[1] 程馨莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第9期1359-1365,共7页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70501023)

摘　　要：基于出行链决策中各选择肢的被选概率及其离散程度,给出了出行弹性度的基本概念及数学定义,并提出了3种出行弹性度,即出行方式选择弹性度、出发时刻选择弹性度和出行链综合弹性度,给出了各选择肢被选概率标准差的相关量来确定以上3种出行弹性度的方法.利用广东省中山市的居民出行数据,建立了出行方式选择和出发时刻选择的多项Logit模型,标定了上述3种出行弹性度,并进行了弹性度分级.比较了考虑弹性度与不考虑弹性度时交通需求管理措施对交通方式转移量的预测,结果显示,不考虑弹性度的转移量预测模型一定程度夸大了交通需求管理措施的实施效果,验证了出行弹性度研究的必要性及其应用价值.This paper defines the elasticity of trip chains as the distribution of the probabilities of different alternatives. Three kinds of travel elasticity are proposed, which are elasticity of mode choice, elasticity of departure time choice, and comprehensive elasticity of mode and departure time. Then methods on how to determine elasticity of trip chains are provided. Based on a dataset collected in a day travel survey in Zhongshan, Guangdong Province, two multinomial logit models on mode choice and departure time choice are established to calculate the elasticity of the above three elasticities. Finally, a comparative study was made of the mode shift prediction with or without a consideration of the mode choice elasticity. Comparison results show that the mode shift prediction model without a consideration of the travel flexibility tends to exaggerate the effect of travel demand management（TDM）, which illustrates the necessary to study travel elasticity in transportation management.

关 键 词：出行弹性 交通方式选择 出发时刻选择 概率离散程度 多项Logit模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]