2000-2010年肥城市农村居民恶性肿瘤死亡及减寿分析  

Analysis of mortality and years of life lost of malignant tumors among inhabitants in rural area of Feicheng City from 2000 to 2010

作　　者：赵丽红 魏文强[2] 马恒敏[3] 赵德利 

机构地区：[1]肥城市人民医院肿瘤研究中心,271600 [2]中国医学科学院肿瘤医院肿瘤研究所流行病学研究室 [3]山东省肿瘤医院科研科

出　　处：《中华肿瘤杂志》2013年第9期714-719,共6页Chinese Journal of Oncology

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目（2008BAD96B11）;山东省卫生厅课题（2007HW139）;山东省科技攻关计划项目（2008GGC03167）

摘　　要：目的分析肥城市农村居民2000-2010年恶性肿瘤死亡趋势及对居民健康的危害程度，为肥城市恶性肿瘤防治工作提供依据。方法利用肥城市农村居民2000-2010年恶性肿瘤登记报告资料，计算恶性肿瘤死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年数、标化潜在减寿年数、潜在减寿率、平均潜在减寿率、平均减寿年数等指标，运用Prais—Winsten一阶自回归模型对恶性肿瘤死亡率的自然对数转换值进行分析。采用Stata12．0软件进行统计学分析。结果2000-2010年肥城市农村居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为199．67／10万，其中男性为264．69／10万，女性为137．24／10万；标化死亡率为157．00／10万，其中男性为200．49／10万，女性为101．31／10万。各标化死亡率无明显时间趋势变化。2000-2010年肥城市农村居民男性肺癌、男性结直肠癌、女性肺癌、女性乳腺癌标化死亡率均呈上升趋势（均P〈0．05），女性食管癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势（P〈0．05）。2000-2010年肥城市农村居民恶性肿瘤潜在减寿年数为183685．0人年，标化潜在减寿年数为153091．0人年，潜在减寿率为23．3％0，标化潜在减寿率为19．4％e，平均减寿年数为14．8年。结论肥城市农村居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率近11年来变化趋势不明显。男性肺癌、男性结直肠癌、女性肺癌、女性乳腺癌标化死亡率呈上升趋势，女性食管癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势。消化系统肿瘤、肺癌和女性乳腺癌是肥城市恶性肿瘤监测和控制的重点。Objective To analyze the mortality trends and disease burden of malignant tumors in rural area of Feieheng city from 2000 to 2010, and to provide basic information for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors in this area. Methods The data of cancer mortality from 2000 to 2010 from Feicheng Cancer Registry database were checked. Mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, potential years of life lost （PYLL）, standardized potential years of life lost （SPYLL）, average years of life lost （AYLL） and other indexes were calculated and analyzed. The trend of the standardized rates transformed by the natural logarithm over time was assessed by Prais-Winsten regression method in which the errors was assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive process. STATA 12. 0 was used to analyze the data. Results In average, the crude mortality rate was 199.67 per 100 000 （264.69 per 100 000 in males and 137.24 per 100 000 in females） ,and the standardized mortality rate was 157.00 per 100 000 （200.49 per 100 000 in males and 101. 31 per 100 000 in females）. There were no significant changes in the trends of all standardized rates. For males, the mortality rates of lung and colorectal cancers increased significantly, and for females, the rates of lung and breast cancers had increased trend while the rate of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend. There were no statistically significant changes in other main malignant tumors. During 2000 to 2010, the PYLL of malignant tumors in Feicheng was 183 685.0 person-years, and PYLL rate was 23.3 per 1000. The SPYLL was 153 091.0 person-years, SPYLL rate was 19.4 per 1000, and AYLL was 14.8 years. Conclusions There are no obvious changes in the trends of standardized mortality rates in rural area of Feicheng over the past 11 years. For males, the mortality of lung cancer and colorectal cancer is increasing, and for females, the rates of lung and breast cancers have an increasing trend while the rate of esophageal cancer shows a decreasing trend. The prevention

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 肥城 预期寿命 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]