厄尼诺对人类社会的影响  

IMPACT OF EL NINO EVENT ON HUMAN SOCIETY

作　　者：包澄澜[1] 向元珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》2000年第3期277-288,共12页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：厄尼诺事件可引起全球气候异常及各种海洋——气象灾害。九十年代以来 ,前期连续发生三次厄尼诺事件 ,1997～ 1998年更发生了一百多年来最强的一次厄尼诺事件。这种异常的厄尼诺形势必将影响到九十年代更为频繁而严重的自然灾害。据 194 9- 1991年历史资料统计 ,厄尼诺年的当年或次年夏季 ,西北太平洋的年台风发生总数为低值谷年 ,江淮流域则是洪涝年。九十年代前期 ,台风发生总数连续出现三个低值谷年 ,1998年只有极少的 13个台风发生 ,平最低历史记录。同时江淮流域在九十年代前期也对应出现三次大洪涝年 ,1998年夏季更发生了罕见的特大洪涝灾害。在 2 0世纪每隔 2 0年左右 ,都会出现一个全世界特大风暴潮灾的集中重现期 ,包括 1- 3次特大潮灾。而在九十年代前期短短 5- 6年中 ,竟意外地发生了 5次特大风暴潮灾。这不能不说与九十年代前期异常的厄尼诺形势密切有关。本文还对厄尼诺影响的机制 ,提出了结论性的看法。The El Nino event can introduce global climate anomaly and many kinds of meteorological-oceanic disasters.In the early stage of 1990’s,three events occurred unexpectedly,moreover,a strongest event occurred in 1997-1998.This kind of anomalous El Nino situation should be corresponding to more frequent and severe natural disasters in 1990’s.Based on historical data statistics in 1949-1991,in summer of El Nino Year or next year,the yearly typhoon occurrence frequency on Northwest Pacific is a low value valley year,and a flooding year in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers.However in the early stage of 1990’s,three low value valley years of typhoon occurrence frequency were observed continuously,while in summer of 1998,only very few 13 typhoons occurred which is same as the historical lowest record.Three severe flooding years also took place in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers in the early stage of 1990’s,while an extremely severe flooding disaster occurred in 1998.In addition,in the 20th Century,an extremely severe storm surge disaster reoccurrence period including 1-3 tidal disasters would happen all over the world every about 20 years.While in a short 5-6 years in the early stage of 1990’s,5 extremely tidal disasters were unexpectedly observed.This should be considered as closely relating to the anomalous El Nino situation in the early stage of 1990’s.The mechanism of impact of El Nino event is also studied in this paper.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 台风 洪涝 风暴潮灾 气象灾害 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434