信贷行为与金融稳定关联性研究  

A Study of the Correlation between Credit Behavior and Financial Stability

作　　者：庞晓波[1] 贺光宇[2] 王超[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [3]交通银行吉林省分行

出　　处：《金融论坛》2013年第9期46-52,共7页Finance Forum

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目<金融稳定的内生机制和外部条件与金融危机防范体系研究>(10JJD790033)

摘　　要：本文在分析信贷行为对金融不稳定状况传导机制理论基础上,对信贷行为与金融稳定的关联性进行检验,构建了标准形式金融状况指数(FCI)和包含了金融机构贷款余额的两种中国金融状况指数(FCIL),并对二者对CPI的预测能力进行了比较分析。结果表明,世界范围内金融危机的发生与信贷行为不当有直接关联;FCIL包含更多未来宏观经济信息,可以更有效的预测通货膨胀压力。综合考虑两方面结果,中国央行在制定货币政策时应该从金融稳定出发,重视信贷行为作为重要中介目标对宏观金融稳定的溢出效应。Based on the analysis of the mechanism theory of credit behaviors transmitting the status of financial instability, this paper tests the correlation between credit behavior and financial stability, constructs a standard form of financial conditions in- dex （FCI） and two kinds of China＇ s financial conditions index （FCIL） which contains loan-amounted of financial institutions, and comparatively analyses the function of the both indexes to predict CPI. The results of the paper show that the worldwide finan- cial crises are directly related to credit misconduct; The FCIL contains more information of future macro-economy and can more effectively predict inflationary pressures. Considering the results, the China＇s central bank should aim at financial stability and pay attention to the spillover effects of credit behavior, as an important intermediate target, on macro-financial stability when it make monetary policies.

关 键 词：信贷行为 金融稳定 金融状况指数 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F832F224