十年来云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系研究  

Decoupling Relationship Between Water Use and Economic Development in Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces during the First Ten Years of the Great Western Development Strategy

作　　者：朱洪利[1] 潘丽君[1] 李巍[1] 鱼京善[2] 姚晓磊[2] 孙文超[2] 李占杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2013年第5期1-5,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：环境保护部西部大开发重点区域和行业重大发展战略环境评价项目(1441302900002)

摘　　要：为了全面分析云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展之间关系的动态变化,利用脱钩弹性模型评价了云贵两省2001年-2010年间用水总量与生产总值、农业用水量与农业增加值、工业用水量与工业增加值之间的脱钩关系。结果表明:云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系整体较差;其中农业用水脱钩关系最差,两省均有50%的年份为强、弱耦合;两省工业用水脱钩关系分别有30%和20%的年份为强耦合;用水总量脱钩关系相对较好,两省均有70%的年份为强、弱脱钩。经济增长缓慢、用水效率偏低、用水结构不合理是造成脱钩关系不佳的主要原因。对比发现,西部大开发战略的深入对于改善水资源利用与经济发展间关系具有积极意义,使两省在"十一五"期间的脱钩关系较"十五"期间有所好转。Based on a systematic summary of the studies on decoupling theory and relevant methods, the decoupling elasticity model was employed to investigate the decoupling relationships（DRs） between total water use（TWU） and provincial GDP, agri- cultural water use（AWU） and agricultural added value（AAV）, and industrial water use （IWU） and industrial added value （IAV）, respectively, which were used to analyze the dynamic relationship between water use and economic development of Yun- nan and Guizhou Provinces from 2001 to 2010, the first ten years of the Great Western Development Strategy in China. The re- sults indicated that the overall DR between water use and economic development is highly undesirable in both of the two prov- inces. Specifically, among the three groups of DRs, the DR of AWU was the worst with strong or weak coupling in half of the 10 years in the two provinces~ the DR of IWU is slightly better with strong coupling respectively in 3 of the 10 years in Yunnan and in 2 of the 10 years in Guizhou^while the DR of TWU is the best with strong or weak decoupling in 7 of the 10 years in the two provinces. The slow economic growth, low water use efficiency, and unreasonable water use structure were the main factors to cause the unfavorable deeoupling relationships. The five-year based DR has been improved in the llth FYP compared with that in the 10th FYP, which suggested the Great Western Development Strategy plays a positive role in coordinating the relationship between water use and economic development.

关 键 词：水资源管理 脱钩关系 脱钩弹性 水资源 经济发展 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]