基于灰色关联分析的天津市碳排放驱动因素研究  

The drivers of Tianjin CO_2 emission identified base on the grey relational analysis

作　　者：袁玥[1] 齐宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2013年第9期101-106,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家社科基金资助重大项目(No.07&ZD018)

摘　　要：天津市拥有中国重要老工业基地和低碳城市试点的"双重身份",当前面临城市化工业化阶段的能源刚性需求巨大和减排压力日渐增大的双重压力,因此制定适宜天津市现阶段发展特征的碳排放政策迫在眉睫。采用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的碳排放核算方法对天津市2001—2010年的CO2排放进行了估算,结合低碳城市试点指标剖析了天津市面临的减排困境;为找出解决办法,采用灰色关联分析法对天津市碳排放的驱动因素进行了识别。结果表明,能源消耗总量、人口指标、经济增长速度和产业结构指标等是CO2排放的关键因素,并由此得出结论,天津市碳减排的工作重心应集中于优化产业结构和能源利用结构、提高能效、倡导低碳消费等方面。Tianjin has a ＂double identity＂ of China＇s major old industrial regions as well as a lowcarbon pilot city. As a result, it confronts a dilemma of rigid energy demand at the stage of urbanization and the increasing pres sure of carbon emissions reduction. Therefore, drawing up appropriate policies to stimulate carbon emissions reduc tion is extremely urgent. This article estimates carbon dioxide emissions in Tianjin 2001-2010, analyzes the predica ment faced by Tianjin. The author uses the grey relational analysis to identify the drivers of carbon emissions, con cludes that energy consumption, increasing population, economic growth and industrial structure are the key factors of the emissions of carbon dioxide. The main points of energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in Tianjin are： optimizing the industrial structure, promote energy efficiency, advocate lowcarbon life, and so on.

关 键 词：碳排放 驱动因素 能源 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]