考虑预见期加权的GFS降雨预报可利用性分析研究  

Availability analysis of global forecast system forecasting rainfall considering forecast horizon weights

作　　者：卢迪[1] 彭勇[1] 王本德[1] 袁晶瑄[1] 周惠成[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报》2013年第5期730-734,共5页Journal of Dalian University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109025);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001024);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20100041120004);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT13JS06)

摘　　要：在统计美国全球预报系统（GFS）桓仁流域的数值降雨预报与实际降雨结果的基础上，考虑不同预见期加权，分析了预见期为1～3d的降雨预报的可利用性．分析结果表明，考虑预见期加权的GFS降雨预报较不考虑预见期加权的预报可利用性明显提高．该方法对水库调度运行有重要的实际指导意义．Based on the statistical analysis of global forecast system（GFS） forecasting rainfall and actual rainfall in Huanren basin, considering different forecast horizon weights, the availability of GFS rainfall forecast in a period of 1-3 days is analyzed. The computing results show that the availability of GFS rainfall forecast considering forecast horizon weights is obviously higher than that without considering forecast horizon weights. The proposed method has a great significance for reservoir operation.

关 键 词：桓仁流域 GFS降雨预报 加权 可利用性 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]