雷暴云团的识别追踪技术在短时临近预报中的应用  

Application of Identifying and Tracking Technology of Thunderstorm Clouds in Short-Term Nowcasting

作　　者：鞠红霞[1] 卞正奎 郭一飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省泰州市气象局,江苏泰州225300

出　　处：《大气与环境光学学报》2013年第5期326-333,共8页Journal of Atmospheric and Environmental Optics

基　　金：泰州市气象局气象服务现代化技术研究项目(TZQXJ201010)资助

摘　　要：应用K均值聚类算法识别雷暴云团,对其进行追踪,通过线性外推的方法进行预报,并采用雷达反射率因子Z和降水强度I的统计关系式Z=AI^b对雷达实测的Z值与相应地面雨量计实测的雨强数据进行比较,经过回归统计分析,分别得到不同降水量级下的A、b系数,获得相应降水估算方程。选取2007年9月18日降水过程的南京雷达资料,对这种雷暴云团的识别追踪方法进行了详细说明,并对预报结果进行了验证。结果表明:该方法能够较好地识别追踪和外推预报雷暴云团,对短时降水能做出比较准确的估算。Thunderstorm clouds were identified and tracked by K-means clustering algorithm and forecasted through the kind of linear extrapolation prediction. Based on the statistical relationship of Z = AIb between radar reflectivity factor Z and precipitation intensity I, Z values measured by radar had been compared with those data of the corresponding ground actual rainfall intensity. By regression statistical analysis, the coefficients of A and b under different rainfull can be deduced respectively and the estimation equation was obtained. The identifying and tracking method about thunderstorm clouds was described in detail by selecting Nanjing radar data about the precipitation process on September 18, 2007 and the forecast result was also verified. The result indicated that thunderstorm clouds were able to be identified, tracked and estimated with extrapolation by this method and the short-time precipitation was accurate

关 键 词：聚类算法 雷暴云团 跟踪 临近预报 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]