经济周期、行业景气度与盈余管理——来自中国上市公司的经验证据  

Business Cycle,Industry Prosperity and Earnings Management——Empirical evidence from China's listed companies

作　　者：陈武朝[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《审计研究》2013年第5期96-105,共10页Auditing Research

摘　　要：盈余管理不仅与审计意见、审计收费、审计师变更及内部控制等有关,而且,盈余管理程度也是衡量注册会计师财务报表审计质量的重要标准。本文研究了经济周期不同阶段及行业景气度不同时,盈余管理程度的差异。通过检验我国A股上市公司在2000—2011年间经济周期收缩期和扩张期,以及行业景气度高与行业景气度低时可操控性应计利润绝对值的差异,本文发现,盈余管理程度在经济收缩期大于扩张期,在行业景气度高时大于行业景气度低时。进一步,无论在经济收缩期还是扩张期,盈余管理程度都在行业景气度高时大于行业景气度低时;盈余管理程度在宏观经济收缩期且行业景气度低(高)时大于宏观经济经济扩张期且行业景气度低(高)时。本文的研究表明,在研究盈余管理时,既应考虑企业所处经济周期不同阶段的影响,也应考虑其所处行业景气度的影响。对审计师而言,在评估重大错报风险及识别盈余管理时,应该考虑经济周期不同阶段及行业景气度的影响。Earnings management relates to audit opinion, audit fee, audit change and internal control. Also, earnings management magnitude is an important measure of audit quality. This paper examines whether the magnitude of earn- ings management of firms in the different stages of business cycle is different, and whether the magnitude of earnings management of firms is different between the period when the industry prosperity index is high and the period when the industry prosperity index is low. By testing the differences of absolute value of discretionary accruals of China＇ s A-share listed firms between contraction and expansion period, and between the period when the industry prosperity index is high and the period when the industry prosperity index is low from Year 2000 to Year 2011, we find that, the magnitude of earnings management is greater during economic contraction period relative to that during the expansion period, and the magnitude of earnings management is greater during the period when the industry prosperity index is high relative to the period when the industry prosperity index is low. In addition, the magnitude of earnings manage- ment is greater during economic contraction period relative to the expansion period for either the period when the in- dustry prosperity index is high or the period when the industry prosperity index is low; the magnitude of earnings management is greater during the period when the macroeconomic is in contraction period and the industry prosperity is high （low） relative to the period when the macroeconomic is in expansion period and the industry prosperity is high （low）. This paper shows that, the impact of the different stages of business cycle and the industry prosperity should be considered in the studies on earnings management. For auditors, different stages of business cycle and industry prosperity should he considered to assess risk of material misstatements and to identify the earnings management.

关 键 词：经济周期 行业景气度 盈余管理 可操控性应计利润 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]