内蒙古地区近30年干旱特征及其成灾原因  

Analysis of Drought and its Possible Causes in Inner Mongolia Region for Nearly 30 Years

作　　者：周扬[1,2] 李宁[1,2,3] 吴吉东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第4期67-73,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：科技部国际合作项目(2012DFG20710);国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955402);国家自然科学基金项目(41171401)

摘　　要：气候变暖背景下内蒙古地区近30年来旱灾成灾驱动力的识别对进行旱灾风险管理具有重要的科学意义。基于内蒙古地区1981-2010年47个地面观测站温度、降水、相对湿度等历史观测资料及农作物旱灾成灾面积,采用变点分析(Change point analysis)探测了近30年来内蒙古地区气候因子与历史灾情的变化趋势;在此基础上,采用多元回归模型分析了研究区旱灾成灾的主要影响因子,最后探讨了研究区农作物旱灾成灾的格兰杰(Granger)因果关系。结果表明:内蒙古地区近30年来年平均温度(0.4℃/10a)和成灾面积(173.9万hm2/10a)呈增加趋势,降水量呈轻微减少趋势(1.2 mm/10a);温度和相对湿度于1980年代末至1990年代初出现突变,而降水量和旱灾成灾面积于1999年发生突变;由降水和温度共同控制作用影响内蒙古地区农作物干旱成灾;相对湿度与成灾面积之间存在时间上的格兰杰因果关系。In the context of global change, it is of importance to investigate the spatial distribution of regional drought and its possible mechanism to adapt the future climate change and mitigate the negative effect from drought disaster. Based on meteorological observation data, including the daily average temperature, precipitation and rela- tive humidity and drought disaster area of crops for Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2010, firstly this study detected the abrupt change and trends for climatic variables and historical disasters using change point a- nalysis ; and secondly analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of seasonal drought according to the compound index （CI） of meteorological drought for the study region ; thirdly, the main drivers of drought disaster were identified through multiple regression model analysis; lastly, the Granger causality for drought disaster in the study region was explored. Results indicated that the annual average temperature and agricultural disaster area show significantly in- creasing trends over the past 30 years and the annual precipitation take a slight decrease trend. Significantly abrupt change points for the annual average temperature and relative humid were detected in late 1980s and early 1990s, and for annual precipitation and disaster acreage were in 1998. Most of areas in Inner Mongolia region showed no drought characteristics in spring and winter seasons, while there dominated by mild drought and without drought in summer and fall. In summer season, in addition to the central and southern of Chifeng city, Wuhai city, the east- ern and southern part of the Alxa League, the Northwest of Xilingele League, the western of Yikezhao League show a moderate drought, these remaining areas appear to demonstrate mild drought. While the moderate drought only occurred in Western and northeastern regions of Hulun Buir League in autumn season, and the remaining regions belongs to the mild drought characteristics. Further investigations revealed that CI, which is con

关 键 词：旱灾 综合气象干旱指数(CI) 变点探测 格兰杰因果检验 内蒙古 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S423[农业科学—植物保护]