自然灾害避难所区位布局研究进展  

A Review on Natural Disaster Shelter Location Research

作　　者：徐伟[1,2] 胡馥妤[1,2] 明晓东[1,2] 杜鹃[1,2] 李颖[1,2] 辜智慧[3] 葛怡[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,100875 [3]深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院,广东深圳518060 [4]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第4期143-151,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41201547);国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2012CB955404);教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划项目(B08008);国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK05B02)

摘　　要：规划建设灾害避难所是减轻灾后人员伤亡最积极而有效的途径之一,灾害避难所的研究也越来越受到关注。从避难所区位布局原则和模型两个方面,系统归纳了灾害避难所区位优化布局研究工作所取得的进展和存在的主要问题,并对未来避难所研究进行了展望。分析表明:目前的灾害避难所研究存在只针对城市地区、服务的灾种单一、适宜性评价指标系统庞大且操作困难、对灾害的不确定因素考虑不足等问题。加强乡村避难场所的研究、考虑多灾种综合的避难场所规划、简化适宜性评价指标体系、考虑灾害模型中的不确定性因素、提高模型的解算效率以及注重考虑人的避灾行为等,是未来灾害避难所区位布局研究的重点。More and more attentions have been paid on shelter planning because it is proved to be one of the most effective countermeasures to reduce the causalities in a disaster. The progresses and main problems on disaster shelter location research have been summarized by analyzing the principles and models of shelter location, and the future work on shelter location has been discussed. Results show that： the current works on disaster shelter mainly focus on urban area with a certain kind of hazard, the evacuation system is extremely complex due to the large num- ber of indicators and criteria, and the uncertain of the potential damage is often ignored in the simulation. Enhan- cing the study at rural area, considering the multi-hazard purpose, simplifying the evaluation index, considering the uncertainty in the disaster model, improving calculation efficiency of the model as well as focusing on the evacuation preference of local residents, would be the main focuses of the disaster shelter research in the future.

关 键 词：灾害避难所 布局原则 选址模型 评价模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]