系统动力学模型在电网公司经营决策支持中的应用  

Application of System Dynamics in Grid Enterprise's Business Decision-making

作　　者：李雪亮[1] 薛万磊[1] 彭丽霖[2] 陈英杰[2] 倪红芳[2] 李晨[2] 曾鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东电力集团公司电力经济技术研究院,山东济南250002 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第9期240-242,199,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271082)

摘　　要：对电网公司关键经营统计指标进行预测及敏感性分析,先利用加权移动平均、多元线性回归、灰色模型预测售电量指标得到三种预测结果,将GDP、人口作为神经网络的输入条件,借助Matlab软件,基于RBF神经网络的综合预测模型将三种预测结果拟合后预测出核心指标售电量;再借助STELLA软件用图形表示因素之间的相互关系和影响,进而构建系统动力学模型,定量分析了各指标间的关系,获得了所有关键指标的预测值,并选取售电量和售电均价做敏感性分析,分析售电量和售电均价变化对电网投资能力的影响程度。This paper focuses on the forecast and sensitivity analysis of grid corporation＇s key operating indicators. Firstly, weighted moving average, multiple linear regression and gray model are used to forecast power sale amount re- spectively, and three kinds of prediction values are obtained. Taking GDP and population as input conditions of neural network, the final prediction using the proposed comprehensive forecasting model based on RBF neural network is carried out with the help of Matlab. And then, the STELLA software is applied to express the relationship between various indi- cators graphically. Furthermore, a system dynamics model is established to analyze the relationship of the key indicators quantitatively. Thus, the prediction of all indicators is achieved. Finally, it carries out the sensitivity analysis with choice of power sale amount and average electricity pricing, and analyzes the impact of the change of power sale amount and av- erage electricity pricing on investment capacity.

关 键 词：电网企业 关键指标 RBF神经网络 综合预测模型 系统动力学 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F426[经济管理—产业经济]