风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型  

Piecewise Exponential Distribution Model of Wind Power Forecasting Error

作　　者：刘芳[1] 潘毅[1] 刘辉 丁强[1] 李强[1] 王芝茗[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京市100192 [2]中国水利水电第十二工程局有限公司,浙江省杭州市310000 [3]辽宁省电力有限公司,辽宁省沈阳市110000

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2013年第18期14-19,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A112);国家电网公司科技项目"大电网多周期一体化发电优化调度关键技术"~~

摘　　要：风电预测存在较大误差,对于风电场和电网调度人员而言,预测的不确定性信息比单纯的功率预测值更有指导意义。基于对中小规模风电场短期和超短期功率预测误差分析,提出风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型,并进行分段指数分布概率密度函数及概率分布函数推导,采用非线性最小二乘法进行参数估计。实例分析中,通过模型精度指标和曲线拟合效果对比了分段指数分布模型与传统误差分布模型,论证了分段指数误差分布模型较传统模型在精度、灵活性方面的优势。Due to the relatively large error in the wind power forecast,the uncertainty message of forecast is more useful as a guide for the wind farm and the system operator.Based on the analysis on the short term and ultra-short term wind power forecast error distribution from small to mid scale wind farm,a piecewise exponential distribution model for wind power forecast error is put forward.The probability density function and the cumulative probability function of piecewise exponential distribution are introduced to estimate parameters of the model using nonlinear least square method.In the example analysis,the piecewise exponential model is compared with traditional error models by precision indexes and the curves fitting effect.Results demonstrate the advantages of piecewise exponential distribution model in the forecast precision and flexibility.

关 键 词：风电预测 误差分布模型 分段指数分布 正态分布 拉普拉斯分布 柯西分布 非线性回归 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM711