税制结构与经济增长——基于中国省级数据的实证研究  

Effect of Tax System on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on the Provincial Data of China

作　　者：郭婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第8期80-91,共12页China Soft Science

摘　　要：利用1998-2011年间中国的省级面板数据,通过工具变量法实证考察了我国现行税制结构在经济增长中的作用以及2002年和2008年税制改革产生的影响。实证结果表明,个人所得税对经济增长有显著的正影响,增值税对经济增长的影响效果不显著,企业所得税对经济增长产生了显著的负影响,这主要与2008年税制改革的影响有关。This article uses the provincial panel data of China from year 1998 to 2011 to conduct an empirical examination on the role which the taxation structure plays in the economic growth and examines the effect that the tax reform had upon the economic system from year 2002 to 2008.As a result,with statistical significance,business income tax is negatively correlated with the economic growth while the individual income tax shares a positive correlation with it.The effect that the value-added tax has upon the economic growth is,however,statistically insignificant.

关 键 词：税制结构 经济增长 税制改革 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]