加入WTO对海峡两岸水产品出口波动影响的实证研究——基于福建与台湾的恒定市场分析  

The Effect of Accession to WTO on Aquatic Product Export Change of the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strain: Based on Market Share Model (CMS) Analyses of Fujian and Taiwan Province

作　　者：郑思宁[1] 黄祖辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,中国浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第9期107-114,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：福建省科技厅软科学重点项目(2013R0010)

摘　　要：利用1996—2010年福建与台湾水产品出口贸易数据,采用恒定市场模型对加入WTO对海峡两岸水产品出口波动的影响进行分析。结果表明:①入世以来,国际市场需求对闽台双方水产品出口均有正向促进作用。②加入WTO对福建水产品出口竞争力有长期的促进作用,对台湾则有短期拉动作用,但长期作用有限,内部产业问题成为阻碍台湾水产品出口竞争力提升的关键。③入世以来,福建与台湾均通过不断调整出口结构来适应国际市场需求,但台湾在出口产品结构上的调整能力有限。此外,文章还在分析其发生原因的基础上,提出在ECFA框架下促进二者水产品出口并加强渔业合作的政策建议。This paper analyzed the effect of accession to WTO on aquatic product export change of Fujian and Taiwan province by using Fujian and Taiwan trade data from 1996-2010 and market share model（CMS）. Three importion conclusion are gotted： （1） international market demand plays a positive role on aquatic product export of Fujian and Taiwan since joining the WTO; （2） the effect of accession to the WTO is obvious to enhance Fujian aquatic product international competitiveness in a long time and Talwan in short time. And the effect is limit to enhance Taiwan aquatic product international competitiveness in a long time,the main obstruction international competitiveness in Taiwan is the internal industry issues ; （3） Fujian and Taiwan by adjusting export structure to adapt to the international market demand, but Taiwan limited ability to adjust export market structure. Then, on the base of analyzing reasons, this paper also makes policy recommendations that how to promoting aquatic product export of Fujian and Taiwan and strengthening fisheries cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan under the background of ECFA.

关 键 词：海峡两岸 WTO 水产品 出口 恒定市场模型（CMS） 渔业合作 ECFA 

分 类 号：F752.65[经济管理—国际贸易]