基于随机微分方程的水库防洪调度风险分析  

Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation based on stochastic differential equations

作　　者：陈娟[1] 钟平安[1,2] 徐斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第5期400-404,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51179044);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951102;2013CB036406)

摘　　要：为研究水库防洪调度中不确定性因素对水库安全的影响,提出水库入库洪水、出库泄流以及水位库容关系等不确定性因素的数学描述方法;建立调洪演算随机微分方程,推导各种不确定性因素综合影响下的各时刻水库水位分布均值和方差计算公式;提出调洪过程中各时刻的风险描述方法以及整个洪水过程的总风险率定量计算方法。大伙房水库实例分析结果表明,调洪过程中任意时刻的风险和总风险计算结果符合水库防洪调度的实际运行状况,可用于定量评估调洪过程中任意时刻的风险和总风险。The impact of uncertainties imposed on a reservoir＇ s safety was studied. Mathematical description methods were developed to study uncertainty factors such as the reservoir inflow, released discharge, and the storage capacity curve. The stochastic differential equation of flood routing was established. Based on the equation, the calculation formulas of the average and deviation of the reservoir water level at each moment under the influence of various uncertainties were derived. The description method for the risk during flood routing was proposed, and the calculation formula for the total flood risk was established. A case study of the Dahuofang Reservoir was conducted. The results show that the proposed methods are practicable for evaluating the flood risk at an arbitrary time and the total flood risk during flood control operations

关 键 词：水库防洪调度 随机微分方程 调洪演算 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]