基于Markov链的部队人员管理风险评估模型研究  

Markov Risk Assessment Model for Troop Personnel Management

作　　者：常作勇[1] 张磊[1] 马伟标[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军66021部队

出　　处：《武警学院学报》2013年第9期79-81,93,共4页Journal of the Armed Police Academy

摘　　要：针对基层部队人员管理特点,在考虑各种风险因素影响和管理便利原则的基础上,利用层次分析方法建立了人员管理评价模型,划分了风险表现等级,建立了一整套关于人员表现风险评价、能力考察的Markov链动态风险评估模型。并通过具体算例对该模型的建模、运算、求解过程进行了说明,并验证了其合理性。该模型可以在综合评价个人表现的基础上,对个人未来一段时间内的表现进行预测评估,并给出其总体表现评估值。Given the characteristics of a basic personnel management, the effect of risk factors and easy - manage-ment principles, AHP is used to construct an assessment model for the personnel management. The risk ranks are formulated, a complete set of Markov risk assessment model for the personnel management and the ability investiga-tion is constructed. An example is given to explain the process of modeling, operating and solving, the rationality is discussed. This model can forecast and assess the personnel performance in near future, and give its personnel com-prehensive performance assessment.

关 键 词：风险评估 MARKOV链 人员管理 

分 类 号：E263[军事—军事理论]