中国证券监管者行为偏差及其关联性研究  

Research on Behavior Bias and the Correlation among Bias of Chinese Security Regulators

作　　者：郝旭光[1] 李放[2] 张士玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,北京100029 [2]中国人事科学研究院组织人事处,北京100101 [3]北京联合大学管理学院,北京100028

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2013年第10期96-107,共12页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国资本市场系统稳定性评估和监测研究"(批准号11AZD010)

摘　　要：现有文献较少研究中国证券监管者的行为偏差,更少研究行为偏差之间的关联性。本文通过有情境因素的问卷调查,验证了中国证券监管者存在先验假设偏差、立即满足偏差和回忆陷阱。研究发现其产生的共同因素都是源于决策者在选择决策信息时存在重主观、轻客观的特点,并与过度自信有着密切的关系。进而通过对问卷数据的定量分析进行实证,发现证券监管者过度自信的比例比一般管理者的比例高。实证结果还发现这三项行为偏差之间存在关联性,包括先验假设偏差和立即满足偏差二者具有高度正相关,先验假设偏差与回忆陷阱、立即满足偏差与回忆陷阱都具有中度正相关。这个结果揭示了体制对中国证券监管者的双重作用以及在公众关注度高、业绩压力大的条件下监管者以主观偏好为主而较少尊重客观情况的行为特点。此外,本文分析并提出了监管者由过度自信导致监管决策失误的路径。There is fewer literature study on behavior bias of China＇s securities regulators, less study on the correlation among bias. This article with the way of situational survey demonstrated that security regulators surely shows prior hypothesis bias, immediate gratification bias and the recallability bias. It has found that the common factor is the behavior bias when selecting information, and there is a close relationship with overconfidence. Based on the above statement and quantitative analysis of questionnaire data, it found the rate of overconfidence of regulators is higher than other managers, and there is correlation among the three bias, which is high positive correlation between prior hypothesis bias and immediate gratification bias and medium positive correlation between prior hypothesis bias, the recallability bias and immediate gratification bias. It shows the effects of systems to regulator and public concern about high performance under stressful conditions is dominated by subjective preferences and less respect for the objective conditions of behavior characteristics. This paper analyses and suggests path of regulatory missteps caused by overconfidence.

关 键 词：先验假设偏差 立即满足偏差 回忆陷阱 过度自信 信息收集 

分 类 号：F276.8[经济管理—企业管理]