人口结构变化影响下的城镇建筑能耗研究  

Research on urban building energy consumption influenced by the change of population structure

作　　者：周伟[1,2] 米红[1,2] 余潇枫[2] 封宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学非传统安全与和平发展研究中心,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2013年第10期1904-1910,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71303212);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ13G030001);国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD099);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK22B02)

摘　　要：从人口的家庭结构、年龄结构、城乡结构变化的角度对城镇建筑能耗的变化进行了分析.根据测算，2010～2030年，中国20～39岁的人口从4.46亿下降到3.28亿，减少约1.181亿；2030年全国的平均家庭规模从3.10人下降到2.48人，全国家庭数量将突破5.5亿户；按照现有模式发展，2030年城市化率达到64.2％.人口结构变化的影响下，2020年的城镇建筑需求总面积为3.14×10^10m^2，人均住宅面积为37m2,建筑能耗达到1.72×10^9tcetce；2030年的建筑需求总面积为3.84×10^10m^2，人均住宅面积为42m^2,能耗为2.13×10^9tce.从需求角度看，未来建筑规模的增长速度将逐步放缓.如果不能及时调整发展战略，未来会出现较大规模的住宅空置和资源浪费.Changes in urban buildings＇ energy consumption can be determined by analyzing population family structure, age structure and urban-rural structure. It is predicted that from 2010to 2030, population in China aged 20～39 is expected to decrease from 446 million to 328 million. By 2030, the average household size will drop from 3.10to 2.48 people per household and total number of households is expected to be 550million. With changes in population structure, by 2030, the urbanization level will be 64.2%. By 2020, total construction demand is expected to be 3.14×10^10m^2 with residential space per capita of 37m^2. Buildings＇ energy consumption is expected to be 1.72×10^9 tee. Moreover, by 2030, total building demand will be 3.84×10^10m^2 with residential space per capita of 42m^2 which is expected to result in energy consumption of 2.13×10^9 tee. If the development strategy isn＇t changed, there will be much empty buildings and huge waste resource.

关 键 词：人口结构 年龄结构 家庭结构 城乡结构 建筑能耗 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]