飓风下城市群应急交通疏散建模研究  

Mega Region Evacuation Traffic Modeling under Hurricane

作　　者：张钊[1] 尹俊淞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第8期30-36,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：西南交通大学博士生创新基金资助(A0920502051214)

摘　　要：为更好实施飓风下的城市群应急交通疏散管理,研究交通疏散模型的完备建模方法,提高模型精确度,提出城市群疏散模型4阶段建模步骤。首先,基于地理信息系统(GIS)构建道路网络模型。其次,融合出行曲线模型和多项式目的地选择模型,预测疏散交通需求。然后,构建交通仿真平台,实现疏散路径选择和动态交通分配。最后,在不同的疏散情况下,提取路网车流量分布数据,以收敛速度法、流量对比法和回归分析法对模型进行参数调整和验证。结果表明:4阶段建模步骤可用于不同路网拓扑结构,人口密度的城市群交通疏散模拟,模型输出结果包括城市群的微观疏散动画,路网的速度、流量分布,宏观交通有效性指标,网络清空时间等。模型可通过扩展疏散需求、改进道路拓扑结构等方法,来预测城市群在未来飓风情况下的疏散情景,亦可用来研究不同需求、疏散行为、管理策略共同作用下的交通状况。With the frequently occurrence of emergencies such as hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquake, mega region evacuation analysis has become an interesting area worth investigating. To accomplish this, parameters requirements for the mega region evacuation model and a four step methodology were intro- duced. The four step methodology includes： network construction, evacuation demand estimation, routing and simulation, model calibration and validation. Among the findings of the research was that it is possible to scale-up and adapt existing models to reflect a simultaneous multi-city evacuation covering a mega region. The output of this model includes macroscopic measure of performance, speed and volume distribu- tion and clearance time for different scenarios. Models such as this can also be modified to represent future anticipated growth and development within other large regions and can be used to evaluate the performance, varying conditions, and interrelationships between behavioral response and regional transportation management strategies.

关 键 词：飓风 城市群 应急交通 疏散模型 微观仿真 地理信息系统(GIS) 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U491.265[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]