基于系统动力学的航空公司不安全事件致因复杂性研究  

Study on Complex Causing Mechanism of Airline Unsafe Events Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：王永刚[1] 王灿敏[1] 郑红运[1] 陈芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第8期71-77,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122013SY55)

摘　　要：为研究航空公司不安全事件致因的动态反馈复杂性,运用系统动力学(SD)原理,利用Vensim软件建立航空公司不安全事件SD模型。以S航空公司为例,分析航空公司权衡安全和经济效益的过程,以及安全隐患在系统的作用下渐变成不安全事件的过程。研究结果表明,用SD模型能较好地模拟航空公司不安全事件在动态反馈复杂作用下的形成机理,通过机理分析,得到控制不安全事件发生的杠杆解,即加强对残留风险、安全投入、飞机维修维护水平的管理,进而防止不安全事件数的发生,使航空公司实现持续盈利。To study airline unsafe events caused by dynamic feedback complexity, a SD model for airline unsafe events is built using Vensim software according to principles of SD. Taking S airline as an example, the process the airline weighs safety and efficiency under survival pressure and the process of airline unsafe events occurring from unsafe risks were analyzed. The results show that the airlines SD model can simulate complex causing mechanism of unsafe events under the dynamic feedback and time delaying complexity. After analyzing mechanism, a lever solution is achieved and that is to strengthen the management of residu- al risk, safety investment and aircraft repair and maintenance level. SD provides a system analysis method for airlines to consider the long-term effectiveness of safety decisions and prevent gradient risks.

关 键 词：航空公司 不安全事件 致因复杂性 动态反馈 系统动力学(SD) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]