西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价  

Risk Evaluation of Water Resources Exploration and Utilization in Western China

作　　者：杜朝阳[1,2] 于静洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第10期59-66,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国环境与发展国际合作委员会"中国西部环境与发展战略及政策研究"课题

摘　　要：我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出。为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系。根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价。首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况。计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0.66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据。Since the implementation of the western development strategy in China,issues of water resources exploration and utilization in west have become increasingly critical.In order to understand the risk situation of water resources exploration and utilization in western China,this paper discussed the concept of risk,analyzed the influencing factors of utilization risk of water resources,and constructed a risk evaluation index system of western water utilization.Because of the basic catastrophic characteristics of water resources system and the feasibility of using catastrophe theory in risk evaluation of water resources utilization,the catastrophe theory was introduced to the evaluation of risk,and the utilization risk of the Western water resources was evaluated.Risk evaluation indexes were ordered by their importance and the value of each index was dimensionless.The index value of each layer could be calculated recursively from down to up by using the normalized formulas and evaluation criteria of the catastrophe model.The relative risk index values of each layer were obtained and compared with risk evaluation grade to analyze the risk situation of index values of each layer.The results of calculation showed that：the comprehensive risk value of utilization of water resources in western provinces is 0.66-0.92,the high level of risk in whole,the risk order from 12 provinces is：Tibet,Shaanxi,Chongqing,Sichuan,Qinghai,Yunnan,Guizhou,Guangxi,Inner Mongolia,Gansu,Xinjiang,Ningxia.The results are consistent with the actual conditions of exploitation and utilization of water resources in the western 12 provinces and provide risk decision making to reasonable utilization and management of water resource in the western development process.Therefore,for water resources exploration and utilization in Western China,water resources planning,management and protection should be done well to achieve the socio-economic sustainable development and ecological system health and to avoid excessive risks in the process of water explor

关 键 词：西部 水资源 开发利用 风险评价 突变理论 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]