出口依赖型进口、资本利率刚性与出口影响经济增长的效率分析  

Research on Export-dependent Imports,Interest-rigidity of Capital Formation,and Impact of Exports on Economic Growth

作　　者：冯贞柏[1] 

机构地区：[1]五邑大学经管学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第9期179-186,共8页China Soft Science

摘　　要：在分析总结中国宏观经济具有出口依赖型进口和资本利率刚性两大重要事实的基础上,本文对凯恩斯总需求模型进行修正,分析出口增长对中国广义经济增长的影响。在对模型可识别性和联立性检验之后,利用3SLS法对模型进行系统估计和乘数分析。结果表明:总体上看,出口增长对中国经济增长是有效的,但效率不高。具体表现为出口和国民收入的增长并未很好地带动居民消费增长;出口对资本形成的贡献微小,投资形成主要依赖上期国民收入增长;出口对进口的短期影响过大,而长期影响渺小;资本形成、进口需求与本期国民收入关系不大,而主要受上期国民收入的影响。因此,要警惕出口导向型的发展战略致使经济陷入"制成品比较优势陷阱"和"贫困化增长"困境。Export-dependent imports and capital-interest rigidity are two important facts in the macro economy of China. After summarizing these features, the author modified Keynes aggregate demand model, analyzed the effect of export growth to China general economic growth. Based on model identification and simultaneous test, this paper used the 3SLSsystem method to estimate the model. The multiplier analysis shows that：On the whole, the export growth of Chinese economy growth is effective, but the efficiency is low. There are three specific performances：firstly, export and the national income growth did not drive the consumption growth efficiently ; secondly, the contribution of the export to capital formation is very small, but it mainly rely on the national income growth; thirdly, export has too big influence on import in the short-run, but too small in the long-run. Fourthly, Capital formation, import demand are not affected by the current but last period national income. The government should be on alert of the ＂comparative advantage trap in manufactured goods＂ and ＂immiserizing growth＂ predicament when export-oriented development strategy is being used.

关 键 词：出口增长 广义经济增长 乘数分析 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]