土地出让价格与中国经济增长  

Land Transfer Price and China's Economic Growth

作　　者：岑树田[1] 颜维海[2] 纪明[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,南京210093 [2]广西中医药大学人文社科学院,南宁530001

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2013年第5期74-85,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大项目(08JJD790120);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA790058)

摘　　要：过去10多年,中国土地出让价格与GDP呈现出高度正相关的变化趋势,但现有的理论和实证研究未能对这种变化趋势是否有因果关系进行解释。理论分析表明,在一个政治集权经济分权和土地国有出让的经济体中,土地出让价格与GDP存在因果关系。在实证层面,通过采用省级面板数据证实了中国土地出让价格与经济增长之间存在着因果关系,即土地出让价格增长能够解释中国的经济增长。考虑到中国土地出让价格与土地制度、地方政府的土地出让行为高度相关,所以要解决中国的土地问题,需要土地市场之外的联动改革。Over the past 10 years, China＇ s land transfer prices and GDP have showed a highly positive trend, but the existing literature and empirical study failed to interpret the causality of the trend. First, this paper theoretically proved that, in a political centralized and economic decentralized economy, and state -owned land transfer, there is the causal relationship between land transfer prices and GDP. In the empirical aspect, we confirmed a causal relationship exists between the land transfer prices and economic growth, which shows that the land transfer prices growth can explain China＇ s economic growth in the sample period at the provincial level. This finding means that, the causality is closely related to the land system and the land transfer behavior of local government, and the linked reforms outside the land market are needed to solve China＇ s land problems.

关 键 词：土地出让价格 土地财政 经济增长 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]