基于生态足迹模型的福建省生态安全分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Eco-Security in Fujian Province: A Study Based on Ecological Footprint Concept and GM(1,1) Grey Forecasting Model

作　　者：吴明珠[1] 李小梅[1] 张江山[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学环境科学研究所,福州350007

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2013年第3期35-43,共9页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：欧盟第七框架:Integrated geo-spatial information technology and its application to resource and environmentalmanagement towards the GEOSS(IGIT:247608);福建省国际合作重点资助项目:多尺度生态资产遥感综合测量技术研究(2009I006);福建省省外专局重点项目:基于GIS和遥感的生态环境尺度定量及其在可持续发展中的应用(SZ2011010)

摘　　要：生态足迹是目前较通用的衡量区域可持续发展的指标,利用生态足迹模型与其他指标结合,可以测算生态赤字(盈余)、生态足迹压力指数、万元GDP足迹等反映区域生态安全状态的定量指标.本研究计算了2002—2008年福建省人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,得到全省生态压力的变化趋势.利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2009—2014年福建省人均耕地生态足迹与承载力、人均建筑用地生态足迹与承载力、人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,结果表明,若继续沿着2002—2008年的发展模式,福建省在未来几年内生态安全将面临极大威胁,全省经济发展模式转型刻不容缓.Ecological footprint is an indicator of assessing regional sustainable development. By the combination of ecological footprint model with other eco-security indicators, the ecological deficit, eco- logical footprint pressure index and ecological footprint per 10 000 Yuan GDP of a certain region can be calculated. This study attains the trend of ecological pressure in Fujian, China, from 2002 to 2008 and predicts the per capita ecological footprint of arable and construction lands, per capita ecological deficit and ecological footprint pressure index during 2009 and 2014 by the use of GM （ 1, 1 ） grey forecasting model. Result shows that eco-security in the province would be threatened during 2009 and 2014 if the development pattern during 2002 and 2008 continues. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to realize a change of developing mode in the province.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态赤字 生态足迹压力指数 GM(1 1)灰色预测模型 福建省 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]