基于泰勒级数及温度因子的卡尔曼滤波模型在链子崖危岩体变形预测中的应用  

Application of Kalman Filter Model Considering Taylor Series and Temperature Factors in the Deformation Forecast of Lianziya Hazardous Rock Mountain

作　　者：陆付民[1] 李劲[1] 王尚庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第20期86-91,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：精密工程与工业测量国家测绘局重点实验室开放基金(PF2009-8);湖北省自然科学基金(2008CDB047)

摘　　要：考虑到链子崖危岩体的变形受温度的影响较为明显,为此,将链子崖危岩体的变形看作时间和温度的函数,利用泰勒级数建立链子崖危岩体的变形与时间和温度的函数关系,并将泰勒级数的余项及时间变化的二次方和温度变化的二次方的系数的变化量看作数学期望为0的动态噪声,建立卡尔曼滤波模型,并用于链子崖危岩体变形的预测预报.实例计算表明,模型的拟合效果和预测效果较好.Considering that the deformation of Lianziya Hazardous Rock Mountain is influenced by the temperature obviously,the deformation of Lianziya Hazardous Rock Mountain is regarded as the function of the time and the temperature in the paper,and Taylor series is used to erect the functional relationship of the deformation to the time and the temperature,the remainder term of Taylor series and the variation of coefficients of second power of the variation of the time and second power of the variation of the temperature are regarded as dynamic noises whose mathematical expectation are 0 to erect Kalman filter model and predict the deformation of Lianziya Hazardous Rock Mountain.An example of calculation shows that the fitted effect and the forecast effect of the model are better.

关 键 词：温度 动态噪声 卡尔曼滤波 预测 

分 类 号：TV221.2[水利工程—水工结构工程]