华北平原农田硝态氮淋溶率和淋溶负荷估计  

Estimation of nitrate leaching rate and loading deduced by agricultural fertilizers in the North China Plain

作　　者：徐鹏[1] 后希康[2] 周丰[3] 营娜[2] 赵广超[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学环境科学与工程学院,芜湖241000 [2]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖241000 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2013年第11期3173-3180,共8页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.41201077);环保部重点流域环境保护监管项目(No.2013A005);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(No.20120001120129)~~

摘　　要：由于化肥过度施用且强度逐渐增加,华北平原氮淋溶问题日趋严重且造成了地下水污染风险.利用1991年以来公开发表的文献中290 组农田NO3--N 淋溶试验样本（淋溶率和10个影响因素）,基于Bayesian递归回归树模型初步建立了华北平原农田NO3--N淋溶迁移过程统计模型.以2008年为例,基于华北平原县域合成氮肥、复合肥施用量和1 km1 km的影响因素和土地利用（耕地）数据,最终得到1 km1 km的华北平原农田NO3--N淋溶率和淋溶负荷及其不确定性水平.初步结果表明：①模型校准和验证R2分别达到0.832和0.829,模拟结果相对可靠;②华北平原耕地NO3--N的淋溶率具有显著的空间分异,其中位值为15.4%（R50为12.6%~18.2%）,其主要影响因素为土壤TN量、施N量、灌溉比例与降雨量的比值等;相应地,2008年淋溶负荷和淋溶量分别为995.1 Gga-1（833.4~1156.7 Gga-1）;③NO3--N淋溶率较高的区域集中在太行山脉以东、黄河附近以及苏北的县（区、市）,淋溶负荷贡献最大为河南（~37.7%）、江苏（~24.8%）和河北（~21.6%）.Nitrogen leaching and the associated groundwater crisis in the North China Plain （NCP） become extremely severe because of the increasingly excessive fertilization of wheat-maize crop systems. 290 leaching measurements for agricultural fields in the NCP were summarized based on the 29 journal articles published from 1991 to 2013;correspondingly, a statistical model was then developed for NO3--N leaching transport processes using Bayesian Recursive Regression Tree approach. The calibrated BRRT-deduced statistical model was eventually applied to estimate the 1 km1 km nitrate leaching rate and loading deduced by agricultural fertilizers in the North China Plain in 2008, using the county-based synthetic and compound fertilizers as well as 1 km1 km resolution independent variables and cropland datasets. The preliminary results include that： （i） the coefficients of determination （R2） reached 0.832 and 0.829 for model calibration and verification steps, respectively. Thus, the calibrated BRRT-deduced statistical model was to an extent reliable for spatial simulations;（ii） the nitrate leaching rate was spatially heterogeneous across the NCP＇s cropland and its median equaled to 15.4 with the interquartile range from 12.6%~18.2%, while the factors that significantly influenced nitrate leaching rate were soil N content, N application rate, water input （=irrigation rate/precipitation）, etc, with the corresponding nitrate leaching loading in the NCP as 995.1 Gga-1 （833.4~1156.7 Gga-1）;（iii） the hotpots with higher nitrate leaching rate were located along the eastern Taihang Mountains, downstream of Yellow River Basin and northern Jiangsu Province, while the major contributions for nitrate leaching loading in the NCP were from Henan （~37.7%）, Jiangsu （~24.8%） and Hebei （~21.6%） Provinces.

关 键 词：氮循环 淋失过程 地下水污染 农田肥料 健康风险 

分 类 号：X17[环境科学与工程—环境科学]