基于宏观经济的财务风险预警模型研究  

Financial Risk Prediction Model Based on Macroeconomic Environment

作　　者：杜军[1] 龙萌萌 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2013年第5期763-767,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70702012)

摘　　要：基于宏观经济环境与企业财务状况存在密切关系的现象,选用2007—2011年样本数据,用因子分析法选取宏观经济变量和财务变量,分别建立基于宏观经济的判别模型、Logistic回归模型和神经网络模型,发现宏观经济数据采用超前财务数据一期时所建的模型最佳,且考虑宏观经济因素的模型预测准确度提高,稳定性增强,因此进行企业财务风险预警时考虑宏观经济因素具有重要意义。Based on the close relationship between the macroeconomic environment and the company financial condition, this paper build discriminant model, logistic regression model and neural network model contained financial variables and maeroeco- nomic variables based on the sample data of year 2007 - 2011. It was found that model of macroeconomic data advanced financial was the best. Furthermore, the model including the macro - variables improved the forecast accuracy, stability, and cut down the cost of prediction errors. So it is important and necessary to consider macroeconomic factors in enterprise financial early warning.

关 键 词：宏观经济环境 财务风险 因子分析 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理]