渔船用生物柴油减排的进化博弈分析  

Evolutionary game analysis of emision reduction for fishing boats using biodiesel

作　　者：肖晓芸[1] 黄硕琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学海洋学院,上海201306

出　　处：《水产学报》2013年第10期1585-1590,共6页Journal of Fisheries of China

基　　金：上海市教委085项目

摘　　要：渔船污染排放是空气污染的一个重要来源,引起国际社会的广泛关注。生物柴油作为一种清洁的可再生能源,具有显著的减排效果。研究从进化博弈论的角度探讨了渔船应用生物柴油的减排策略,分析了有限理性的渔民之间、渔民和企业之间采取不同策略群体比例的动态变化,以及进行稳定策略的条件。研究认为,政府的补贴政策、渔业部门的监督检验和碳交易的有效实施,可以改变渔民的得益矩阵,引导渔民使用替代能源进行减排。对我国捕捞渔船进行了减排成本估算,结果表明,渔船发动机掺混5%的生物柴油将导致每船每年平均增加燃油成本近3 000元。如果政府能够制定生物柴油补贴政策,并建立有效的碳交易制度,在不增加成本的前提下,渔民会逐渐倾向采用生物柴油进行渔船减排。As an important source of air pollution,pollution emissions of fishing boats caused widespread concern in the international community.As a clean,renewable energy which has the similar performance to petroleum diesel that can be mixed for use in a diesel engine,biodiesel can be a better alternative energy in the post-oil era with significant emission reduction effects.This paper explored the reduction strategies of fishing boats using biodiesel based on evolutionary game theory.This paper analyzed the dynamic changes of the proportion of fishermen,fishermen and enterprises that adopted different strategies with bounded rationality,as well as the conditions for stable strategy.This paper considered that subsidy policy of the government,supervision of the fishing department and effective implementation of carbon trading can change the fishermen’ benefit matrix to induce fishermen to reduce emissions by using alternative energy sources.This paper estimated the cost abatement of Chinese fishing vessels.The results showed that fishing boat engine blended 5 percent biodiesel would result in an average annual increase in cost by nearly 3000 yuan per boat.If the government is able to develop biodiesel subsidy policy and establish an effective carbon trading system,with no increase in the cost,the fishermen will gradually tend to use biodiesel for fishing boats emission reduction.

关 键 词：渔船 减排 进化博弈理论 复制动态方程 进化稳定策略 

分 类 号：S972.71[农业科学—捕捞与储运]