基于灰色系统理论的我国林业产业研究  

China's Forestry Industry Research Based on Gray System Theory

作　　者：丁贺[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2013年第21期9095-9097,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：基于1998～2011年我国林业统计数据,运用灰色关联度和GM(1,1)预测模型对我国的林业产业结构进行了分析和预测。结果表明:林业第二产业与总产值的灰色关联度最大,对林业总产值的贡献率最大,第一产业次之,第三产业最小;动态关联分析显示,林业产业总产值和各产业产值都在显著增加,产业结构表现为"二、一、三"的产业格局。通过灰色模型预测可知,我国林业产业不断的趋向合理完善,2013年总产值将达41 329.208 3亿元,但2013～2018年仍将保持着"二、一、三"的产业格局。Based on 1998 -2011 forestry statistics applying gray correlation degree and GM （ 1,1 ） model, Chinag forestry industry structure was analyzed and predicted. The results indicated that the greatest gray correlation degree of the forestry industry output value was the second industry, which made the greatest contribution to output value of forestry ; followed by the first industry, tertiary industry minimum. The dy- namic association analysis showed the total output value of forestry industry and various industrial output value increased significantly, industry structure is ＂second, first, third＂. Gray model forecast revealed that Chinag forestry industry tend to be reasonable improvement, Output val- ue reached 41 329. 208 3 billion in 2013, but remain ＂second, first, third＂ industrial pattern during 2013 -2018.

关 键 词：灰色关联度 GM(1 1) 林业产业 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F316.2[经济管理—产业经济]