省县道公路路面性能预测模型研究  

Research on forecasting models for road performance of provincial and county roads

作　　者：熊雯华 黄启耀 

机构地区：[1]江西省吉安市公路局永丰公路分局,江西吉安331500

出　　处：《山西建筑》2013年第32期117-118,共2页Shanxi Architecture

基　　金：江西省交通厅科技项目(项目编号:2012H0068)

摘　　要：针对省县道公路检测数据少、不确定因素多的特征,分析了灰色模型和马尔科夫模型各自的特点,并结合两者建立了组合预测模型,预测了公路路面状况指数PCI,证明组合预测方法符合实际情况,具有较高精度。According to the features on provincial and county roads, including insufficient test data and uncertain factors, the paper analyzes re- spective features of the gray model and markov model, establishes the integrated forecasting models by combining them together, forecasts the pavement condition index PCI on roads, and proves the integrated forecasting method with higher accuracy adheres to the fact.

关 键 词：路面性能 预测 模型 

分 类 号：U416.2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]