基于土地利用及其格局的自然灾害风险评价模型  

Natural disaster risk assessment model based on land use and its pattern

作　　者：游珍[1] 蒋庆丰[1] 娄彩荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第5期23-30,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001355)

摘　　要：自然灾害风险评价是了解区域灾害现状、制定应急预案、规划区域发展的重要环节。以往的自然灾害评价多以灾害危险性和受灾体易损性叠加后的斑块为基本评价单元,理论性强,但实用价值弱,而且忽略了人类活动在灾害中的主导因素。以土地利用类型为基本评价单元,从风险源、风险受体和风险效应三个方面建立了自然灾害风险评价模型。该模型除了考虑原有的灾害危险度、受灾体易损性外,还考虑了灾害应急体系、区域危险源布局、灾后重建难度、受灾体间接经济损失和社会损失等要素。最后以江苏省启东市为例,绘制了该市的台风灾害风险图,并提出了针对性措施。Natural disaster risk assessment is an important link in understanding regional disaster situation, making emergency pre-plan and programming region development. Most existing disaster assessment models take the stack patches of the hazard and the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, as the assessment units. These models focus more on theory but less on practicality, and neglect the dominant factor of human action in natural disasters. This paper takes land use type as basic assessment unit, and establishes the natural disaster assessment model for risk sources, risk sufferers and risk effects. The model also considers the original hazard degree and the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, as well as the disaster emergency system, regional risk resource layouts, post-disaster reconstruction difficulties, risk sufferer indirect economic losses, social losses and other factors. In the end, taking Qidong Jiangsu as an example, the paper a typhoon risk map is drawn, and some measures to prevent typhoon disasters are proposed.

关 键 词：土地利用 格局 自然灾害风险 模型 启东 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]