基于县域尺度的青藏高原洪涝灾害风险分析  

County scale-based risk analysis of flood hazard in Qinghai-Tibet plateau

作　　者：邹新华[1] 刘峰贵[1,2] 张镱锂[2] 陈琼[1] 张海峰[1] 赵志龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第5期181-188,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973项目)(2010CB951704);国家自然科学基金项目(40761003)

摘　　要：近47年来,青藏高原降水量增加趋势明显,极端降水事件频发,并在区域内部呈现出较大的区域空间差异,洪涝灾害在部分区域风险日益增大。以青藏高原范围内213个县域单位为对象,选取1951-2010年洪涝灾害数据和2010年的脆弱性断面数据,从洪涝灾害的危险性(历史危险性、潜在危险性)、脆弱性(物理暴露、应灾能力)两个方面,采用层次分析法利用GIS技术对青藏高原洪涝灾害进行了分析。结果表明,青藏高原东部的昆仑山东段、祁连山地区、甘南高原、川西高原东部、西藏中部山地地区和北部的喀喇昆仑山西段洪涝灾害的风险最高,柴达木盆地边缘山地、西藏西部和唐古拉山地区洪涝灾害风险次之,洪涝灾害的重点防范区域为河湟谷地、西藏一江两河、甘南高原和川西北高原山地地区。In recent 47 years, a rising trend of precipitation is obvious in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which leads to frequent extreme rainfall events, larger regional spatial differences within the region, and increasing risk of flood disaster in some areas. Taking 213 country level units as the object and selecting the flood disaster data from 1951 to 2010 and the vulnerability cross section data in 2010, this study did an analysis on the flooding disaster risk of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two aspects, the hazard of flood disasters （historical hazard, potential hazard） and vulnerability （ physical exposure,disaster coping capacity）, were considered, and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and geographical information systems （GIS） were used in the study. The results show that, the highest flooding risk regions include the eastern section of Kunlun mountains, Qilian mountains region, Gannan Plateau, the east of West Sichuan Plateau, the mountainous regions in the central Tibet and the west of Karakoram, and followed by the edge mountain regions of Qaidam Basin, western Tibet and Tanggula Mountain area. Vital precautionary fields of flood disaster are Hehuang Valley, the YLN region of Tibet, Gannan Plateau and the mountain area of Northwest Sichuan Plateau.

关 键 词：青藏高原 洪涝灾害 风险 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]