基于挣得进度的灰色Verhulst模型对工程工期的动态预测  

The Dynamic Prediction of Project Period Based on the Grey Verhulst Model of Earned Schedule

作　　者：贾铭钰[1] 杨秀芸[1] 朱美洁[1] 李招弟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京城市学院,北京100083

出　　处：《北京城市学院学报》2013年第5期32-38,49,共8页Journal of Beijing City University

摘　　要：基于挣得进度的工期预测模型能支持对工程工期的预测,但预测模型都是建立在已发生的工程的挣得进度的基础上,对工程工期的预测不仅是静态的,而且在工程早期阶段,预测的精度不高。本研究基于挣得进度概念,采用灰色系统理论,建立灰色Verhulst全信息预测模型与新陈代谢预测模型,实现了对工期的动态预测。利用三个实际的工程项目的数据,用所建模型对工程工期进行对比仿真预测,然后与挣得进度模型的预测结果进行对比验证。结果表明,基于挣得进度的灰色新陈代谢模型不仅实现了对项目工期的动态预测,而且预测精度比其它两种模型都高。The prediction model of the earned schedule will support for the prediction of project duration, but the prediction models are set up in what has happened to the earned schedule of the works on the basic. The prediction of project duration is not only static, but also in the early stages of the project the prediction accuracy is not high. This study based on the concept of the earned schedule, used grey system theory, set up the entire information prediction model of grey Verhulst and metabolic prediction model, implemented the dynamic prediction of project duration. Using three real projects data, using the model for engineering project comparing simulation prediction, and comparing with the prediction results of the earned schedule model, the results show that the grey metabolic model of the earned schedule is not only for the project im- plementation period of dynamic prediction, and prediction accuracy is higher than the other two models.

关 键 词：挣得进度 挣得值 VERHULST模型 工程工期 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济] F224