某大型厂矿职业暴露女性恶性肿瘤发病情况及乳腺癌发病趋势预测  

Incidences of Feminine Malignant Tumors among An Occupation Population and Trends of Breast Cancer

作　　者：杨冬华[1] 白亚娜[1] 蒲宏全 任晓卫[1] 李海燕 胡晓斌[1] 苏辉[2] 孙仙[1] 晁利利[1] 李娟生[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃省兰州市730000 [2]甘肃省金昌市金川公司

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2013年第29期3435-3437,共3页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：城市癌症早诊早治,财社【2012】64号

摘　　要：目的了解某大型厂矿职业暴露女性恶性肿瘤发病情况并预测该人群乳腺癌发病趋势。方法资料来源于某大型厂矿2001—2010年职业女性病案登记档案,共纳入158 380例女性,分析其乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌、子宫内膜癌的时间分布、年龄分布及部门分布等;采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测该人群乳腺癌发病趋势。结果该人群中共发现乳腺癌90例、卵巢癌25例、子宫颈癌13例、子宫内膜癌14例,总发病率分别为568.25/10万、154.14/10万、85.51/10万、8.93/10万;卵巢癌发病率呈下降趋势(P=0.011),子宫颈癌发病率呈增长趋势(P=0.018),而乳腺癌(P=0.114)和子宫内膜癌(P=0.710)发病率变化不明显。该人群中35岁以上女性共有122 182例,不同年龄女性乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌发病率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05);子宫内膜癌发病率比较,差异有统计学意义(P=0.006)。该人群中在采矿、冶炼、服务部门工作女性共有62 347例,不同工作部门女性乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌、子宫内膜癌发病率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示,该人群女性乳腺癌2011—2013年发病例数分别为14、15、16例,呈增长趋势。结论该大型厂矿职业暴露女性恶性肿瘤发病率较高,存在健康威胁;预测该人群乳腺癌发病呈增长趋势,应采取综合性预防措施以降低恶性肿瘤发病率。Objective To explore the categories and the clinical characteristics of malignant tumors, and incidence trends of breast cancer among female workers in a certain occupational group. Methods The health records of 158, 380 female workers in a mine factory from the year of 2001 to 2010 were analyzed. The age, time and sector distributions of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer, and endometrial carcinoma were determined. And GM （ 1, 1 ） gray model was used to predict the trend in the incidence of breast cancer in this population. Results There were 90 cases of breast cancer, 25 of ovarian canc- er, 13 of cervical cancer, and 14 of endometrial carcinoma, the incidences of which were568. 25/100, 000, 154. 14/100, 000, 85. 51/100, 000, and 8. 93/100, 000, respectively. From 2001 to 2010, the incidence of ovarian cancer decreased （ P = 0. 011 ） and the incidence of cervical cancer increased （ P = 0. 018 ）, while those of breast cancer and endometrial carcino- ma stayed stable （P =0. 114, P =0. 710）. Among all the participants, 122, 182 participants aged above 35 years. There was significant difference on the incidence of endometrial carcinoma among different age groups （ P = 0. 006 ）, while no significant difference was found on the incidences of other three cancers （ P 〉 0.05 ）. There were 62, 347 participants working in mining section, refining section, and support units. There was no significant difference on the incidences of the four cancers among dif- ferent sections （P 〉0. 05）. GM （ 1, 1 ） model suggested that the incidences of breast cancer from 2011 to 2013 would reach to 14, 15, and 16 cases, respectively. Conclusion The incidences of malignant tumors are high among female workers in this occupational group. The incidences of malignant tumors varies in different age groups as well as different departments. The inci- dence of breast cancer may increase in the next few years in this occupational group. Preventive policy should be implemented to lower the incidences o

关 键 词：职业暴露 女性 恶性肿瘤 发病率 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]