人民币升值对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响  

The Revaluation of RMB on China's Manufactured Export Competitiveness

作　　者：牛拥[1] 毛德勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学,江苏南京210046 [2]中国建设银行江苏省分行,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2013年第6期22-27,共6页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：基于2005年8月至2012年3月间的月度时间序列数据,本文选取12个制造业行业分析了有管理的浮动汇率制以来人民币实际有效汇率同制造业出口价格之间的关系。分析结果表明,近半数行业在国际市场上具有一定的依市定价能力,从而能部分抵消人民币升值对其出口价格的压力;但是仍有半数的制造业基本上没有任何的国际市场垄断势力,人民币升值的效应会完全传递于其出口价格。就此12个行业整体而言,出口价格的传递效应大于人民币升值的幅度,因此,人民币持续而大幅升值对中国制造业的影响深远。Based on the time serial data between August 2005 and March 2012, this paper selects 12 industries to analyze the relation between RMB real effective exchange rate and China＇ s manufactured export competitiveness, The results of analysis show that half of the 12 industries have somewhat Pricing -to - Market ability, which makes the firms of those industries withstand some pressures of RMB＇s appreciation; but the other half of 12 industries have to increase their export prices so as to re- spond to the appreciation. And in the whole, the pass - through effect of China＇ s manufactured export surpasses the extent of RMB＇ s appreciation. So it can be evident that the persistent and great appreciation of RMB will deeply affect the competi- tiveness of China＇ s manufacture industries.

关 键 词：汇率传递系数 依市定价弹性 实际有效汇率 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]