复杂地质条件下岩溶隧道变形预测方法优化的探讨  

On the Optimization of Deformation Prediction Method for Karst Tunnels in Complex Geological Conditions

作　　者：师海 白明洲[1] 谭德庆 王成亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044 [2]中铁二十局集团第六工程有限责任公司,咸阳711120

出　　处：《现代隧道技术》2013年第5期87-91,97,共6页Modern Tunnelling Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41072256);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2011YJS254)

摘　　要：由于岩溶隧道变形监测对隧道稳定性评价意义重大,因此为了有效地提高预测模型的精度,提出了一种基于IOWHA算子组合模型的预测方法:首先运用优化的灰色理论和时间序列方法拟合预测隧道变形,然后以单一方法的预测结果为基础,结合IOWHA算子,建立组合预测模型;利用某岩溶隧道监测获取的原始数据,运用组合预测模型得到相应的结果,并将其与单一方法的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明:IOWHA算子组合模型能够将灰色理论和时间序列方法优势组合,使得预测精度明显提高。该组合模型的应用对具体岩溶隧道的稳定性评价和隧道施工具有一定指导意义。It is of great importance to monitor the detbrmation of karst tunnels in order to evaluate the tunnel stability. To improve the accuracy of prediction models, an IOWHA operator-based combined model is set up. Firstly the grey theory and time series method are optimized to fit predicted tunnel detbrmation. Secondly an individual method based on the predicted results is used to establish a combined prediction model. Using original data obtained from a karst tunnel, the corresponding results of this combined prediction model are given, and the results are compared to those from former models. Results show that the IOWHA operator-based combined model combines both the advantages of grey theory and the time series method, improving prediction accuracy greatly.

关 键 词：隧道变形 组合模型 灰色理论 时间序列IOWHA算子 

分 类 号：U451.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U456.31[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]