考虑权重标度法的中长期负荷预测综合模型  

Medium and Long Term Combined Load Forecasting Model Considering Weight Scale Method

作　　者：黎祚[1] 周步祥[1] 李君[2] 林楠[3] 李阳[1] 刘金华[4] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,成都610065 [2]四川省德阳电业局,德阳618000 [3]四川电力职业技术学院,成都610071 [4]二滩水电开发有限责任公司,成都610051

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2013年第5期96-99,共4页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：针对传统负荷预测综合模型的缺陷,将权重标度法的思维应用于负荷预测来构造能够弥补对应缺陷的新综合模型。通过建立标度判断矩阵与权重矩阵,利用标度判断矩阵同权重矩阵之间的联系,采取对数最小二乘法求解权重矩阵从而得到单一预测模型的权重,进而通过权重比例得出该模型的预测结果。阐述了新模型的思路和理论,并通过在实例电网中的计算和应用,验证了该模型同单一预测模型以及传统综合模型相比,能够有效地提高负荷预测精度。A combined model adopting thought of weight scale method in load forecasting to remedy such defect is pro- posed to overcome the shortcomings of traditional load forecasting combined model. Adopting the logarithmic least square algorithm to get the weight of single forecasting mode/by using the relationship between scale judgment matrix and weight matrix, the new model can give out forecasting result through creating such scale judgment matrix and weight matrix. The theory and implementation details of this new model are presented, calculating and application in real power grid prove that this model has the ability to improve load forecasting precision effectively compared with sin- gle forecasting model and traditional combined model.

关 键 词：中长期负荷预测 综合模型 权重标度法 对数最小二乘法 权重矩阵 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]