基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的河流水质预测  

Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Grey Model

作　　者：颜廷文 孙宝盛[1] 张冉[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2013年第5期130-133,189,共5页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：天津市自然科学基金重点项目"污水处理中EPS和生物多样性的研究"(07JCZDJC02100)

摘　　要：河流水质预测是对河流水环境污染进行分析、控制和治理的基础。基于太湖流域上海市青浦区急水港点位2004—2011年的水质指标COD,NH3—N数据,分别建立等维新息灰色预测模型;由于NH3—N指标的平均相对误差没有达标,因此利用马尔可夫模型对NH3—N指标的预测结果进行修正,之后应用两种模型分别预测未来几年两项水质指标数值。结果表明,等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型有效地减小了预测结果的平均相对误差,提高了预测精度;未来几年,两项水质指标均呈整体下降趋势,并在一定程度上趋于平缓。但由于太湖流域污染的长期性,其水环境形势依然严峻,应继续采取合理有效的治理措施,如从源头上进行减污,生态清淤,加快转变流域经济发展方式及完善流域管理等,使流域水质得到整体改善。The prediction of water quality is the foundation of the analysis, control and treatment of water pollution. Based on the data of water quality indexes of COD and NH3--N from 2004--2011 at the Jishui wa ter port of Qingpu District, Shanghai City in the Taihu Lake basin, the equal dimension and new information model was established for each index. The mean relative error of the NH3--N index did not meet the stand- ard, so the Markov model was used to improve the predicted values. Then, the future water quality indexes were predicted by the two models. Results show that the equal dimension and new information Markov model effectively reduces the average error of the predicted values and enhances the accuracy of them. In the next few years, the two water quality indexes show a downward trend and tend to be flattened to a certain extent gradually. However, due to the long-term nature of the pollution of the Taihu Lake basin, the water envi-ronmental situation remains grim. So, reasonable and effective measures should be taken in a long period of time, such as reducing source pollution, making ecological dredging, accelerating the transformation of eco nomic development mode in the basin and improving the management of the basin. The water quality of the Taihu Lake basin may be overall improved in the future.

关 键 词：水质预测 等维新息灰色模型 马尔可夫模型 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]