基于谷物当量的中国居民食物消费变化及其对农业生产需求分析  

Changes in Chinese Food Consumption and Agricultural Production Requirements Based on Cereal Equivalent

作　　者：曹志宏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州轻工业学院经济与管理学院,郑州425000 [2]郑州轻工业学院社会发展研究中心,郑州425000

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第11期2181-2187,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2011BAD04B00);河南省社会科学规划决策咨询项目(编号:2012D010)

摘　　要：我国居民食物消费优化升级必然对其农业资源需求产生重要影响,因此,本文基于谷物当量分析居民食物消费变化及其对农业资源产出需求的影响,研究结果显示:①从食物消费整体演变趋势而言,我国居民食物消费仍以素食消费为主,逐渐向营养均衡化和多样化演替,食物消费结构优化调整对农业资源压力不断增加;②从城乡差异而言,虽然城乡居民食物消费数量整体趋同,但当前农村居民食物消费人均农业资源占有量仅为城镇居民占有量的78.90%,城镇消费品质高于农村,且城乡差异有逐渐增加的趋势;③从地域空间分布特征而言,我国各地居民食物消费谷物当量呈现出结构一致性、南北差异和民族差异特征;④从食物消费结构而言,虽然我国居民直接食用食物对农业资源的需求不断降低,但禽畜产品生产饲料需求对农业资源压力不断增大,在未来20年间居民食物消费优化升级使其农业资源需求量约增长25.23%,饲料消费已经取代人口增长成为影响我国食物供给安全的首要因素。With improving Chinese living standards, the optimization and upgrade of resident food consumption will have an important impact on the demand for agricultural resources. Here, we analyze changes in Chinese food consumption and agricultural resource requirements based on a cereal equivalent. We found that in the overall development trend, Chinese food consumption is still vegetarian but is heading towards balanced nutrition and diversity. Food consumption structural optimization and adjustment increases pressure on the demand of agricultural resources. Rural residents＇ food consumption is 78.90% that of urban residents, indicating that the quality of urban resident food consumption is better than that of rural people; this difference between urban and rural people is increasing. The regional spatial distribution of Chinese resident food consumption shows composition consistency and north-south and ethnic differences. Regarding resident food consumption structure, though the agricultural resource demands for directly edible food are continuing to decrease in China, pressure on agricultural resources for livestock product demand is increasing. The demand for agricultural resources will rise about 25% as the optimization and upgrading of Chinese food consumption continues over the next 20 years. Consumption will become the primary driver affecting food supply security and replace population growth.

关 键 词：居民食物消费 趋势特征 城乡差异 农业生产压力 谷物当量 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F320