分省与区域碳市场的比较分析——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCo2  

Comparative Analysis of the Separate Carbon Market and Inter-provincial Carbon Market——Based On Chinese Multi-Regional CGE Model-TermCo2

作　　者：刘宇[1] 蔡松锋[2] 王毅[1] 陈宇峰[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部 [3]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [4]浙江工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2013年第11期117-127,共11页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家科技部重点基础研究发展计划973项目"气候变化对社会经济系统的影响与适应策略"(编号:2012CB955700);美国能源基金会项目"广东省绿色低碳发展战略问题研究";中国科学院战略性先导科技专项--应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题(编号:XDA 05150300)

摘　　要：本文采用中国多区域一般均衡模型(TermCo2)模拟了广东和湖北单独减排和开展跨省碳交易的减排成本与经济影响。研究发现,碳交易可以有效降低整个区域的碳减排成本,在单独减排下,广东和湖北的碳价分别为102.9元/吨和14.8元/吨,区域的平均减排成本为972.4元/吨。实施区域碳市场后,广东将向湖北购买2300万吨排放配额(8.24亿元),均衡碳价降为35.9元/吨,减排成本降为567.9元/吨。从行业减排看,高排放行业产出下降是排放减少的主要原因,而能源产品之间的替代作用并不大。从宏观经济看,碳市场会对经济增长造成一定的冲击,尤其是大幅抑制了投资,对物价的推动作用相对较小。虽然湖北(排放权卖方)的GDP受到更大的损失,但是其福利得到一定的改善。从行业角度看,电力、非金属矿物制品、非金属矿采选业、金属冶炼及压延加工和化工行业等高排放强度行业受到的冲击较大,而对于服务业的影响较小。据此,本文提出了相应的结论和政策建议。We use the Chinese multi-regional general equilibrium model （TermCo2）to simulate the economic impact of the separate carbon trading of Guangdong and Hubei and inter-provincial carbon trading. The study finds that carbon trading can reduce the carbon abatement costs of the entire region. In the separate emission reduction, the carbon tax of Guangdong and Hubei are respectively 102.9 yuan/ton and 14. 8 yuan/ton, the average cost of regional emission reduction is 972.4 yuan/ton. After the inter- provincial carbon trading, the regional carbon tax is only 35.9 yuan/ton, the average cost of regional emission reduction goes down to 567.9 yuan/ton. From the view of industry emission reduction, the main reason for emission reduction is the falling of output in high emission industry, the role of substitution in energy products with different emission intensity is not great. From a macroeconomic view, the carbon market will pull down the economic growth,curb excessive investment growth and make a slight push of prices. Although the GDP of Hubei（the seller of emission rights）suffers a bigger loss, its welfare has been improved. From the industry point of view, electricity, non-metallic mineral products, non-metallic mining and dressing industry,metal smelting and rolling processing and the chemical industry sectors with high emission intensity will suffer a greater impact, services and other tertiary industry suffer less impact. Finally,we put forward the main conclusions and policy recommendations.

关 键 词：碳市场 经济影响 多区域一般均衡模型 TermCo2 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]