台兰河年均流量非平稳序列加法模型的建立与预报  

Establishment of the Non-Stationary Series Additive Model and Prediction of the Mean Annual Discharge of the Tailan River

作　　者：王志杰[1] 旦木仁加甫[1] 王新辉[1] 耿曙萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆水文水资源局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2013年第5期62-65,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：2010年水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201001065)

摘　　要：将台兰河作为塔里木河典型源流径流的案列,通过SPSS应用技术,探索适合干旱区河流水文预报方法。首先将台兰河台兰水文站1957—2008年年均流量Q(t)序列分解为趋势、周期、平稳函数项和噪声项,建立了非平稳时间序列加法模型,然后对建模年限内的Q(t)序列作了模拟检验,最后对建模年限外的2009、2010、2011年Q(t)值作了预报,预报结果符合水文情报预报规范要求,可供生产实践参考。Taking Tailan River as the typical case of original runoff of Tarim River, this study used application technology of SPSS to explore hydrological forecasting method suitable for the arid area＇s river. Firstly,the mean annual discharge sequences Q （t） for hydrological station of Tailan River from 1957 to 2008 was decomposed into trend,cycle,stationary function item and noise item, and non-stationary time series additive model was established. Then, Q （t） in the modeling sequences was simulated and tested. Finally, Q （t） for the year of 2009,2010 and 2011 which are out of the modeling sequences was forecasted. The forecast result is in accord with hydrological information and hydrological forecasting. It can be referenced for production.

关 键 词：年均流量 趋势函数 周期函数 平稳函数 预报 

分 类 号：P514[天文地球—地质学]