生态系统重大突变检测研究进展  

Review on detection of critical transition in ecosystems

作　　者：孙云[1] 于德永[1] 刘宇鹏[1] 郝蕊芳 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,人与环境系统可持续性研究中心,北京100875

出　　处：《植物生态学报》2013年第11期1059-1070,共12页Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划“全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型”(2012CB955402);中央高校基础研究基金项;北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室项目(2012TDZY032)

摘　　要：当一个存在多稳态的生态系统临近突变阈值点时,外界条件即使发生一个微小变化,也会引发生态系统的剧烈响应,使之进入结构和功能截然不同的另一稳定状态,这种现象称为重大突变(critical transition)。重大突变所导致的稳态转换总是伴随着生态系统服务的急剧变化,可能对人类可持续发展产生重大影响。预测生态系统突变的发生非常困难,但科学家在此领域的大量研究结果表明,通过监测一些通用指标可以判断生态系统是否不断临近重大突变阈值点,进而可以进行生态系统重大突变预警。该文对近年来生态系统重大突变检测领域所取得的成果进行总结与归纳,论述了生态系统重大突变的产生机制及其后果,介绍了生态系统突变预警信号提取的理论基础,从时间和空间两个维度总结了近年来生态系统重大突变预警信号的提取方法,概述了当前研究面临的挑战,指出生态系统突变预警信号的检测应充分利用时空动态数据,并且联合多个指标,从多个角度进行综合预警,此外,还应重视生态系统结构与重大突变之间的关系,增强生态系统突变预警能力。Ecosystem with altemative stable states would respond abruptly to minor changes in the external conditions and switch into an altemative stable state with different ecosystem structures and functions when the system ap- proaches the transition threshold. This phenomenon is called critical transition. It is often the case that such transi- tion can result in marked changes in ecosystem services, which are much likely to impact the sustainable devel- opment of human being. It is difficult to predict the critical transitions in ecosystems, but the large amount of re- search in this field show that by monitoring some generic properties （i.e. early-warning signals） relating to eco- system status, we are able to discern if the system approaches the transition threshold; this can be used to predict the critical transitions in ecosystems. This paper summarizes the major findings and achievements in the field of detecting critical transitions in ecosystems. It first discusses the mechanism and consequence of critical transi- tions, and then introduces the basic theory behind the early-warning signals. We sum up the methods used to ex- tract early-warning signals both from temporal and spatial dimensions. Finally, challenges confronting the con- temporary research are summarized. In future, the application of early-warning signals should make full use of both temporal and spatial data and combine different indicators to improve our ability to forecast unfavorable en- vironmental events. Also, special attention needs to be paid to the relationship between critical transitions and ecosystem structures so that we can strengthen the ability to predict critical transitions in ecosystems.

关 键 词：临界放缓 重大突变 早期预警信号 生态系统弹性 稳态 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]