基于Mann-Kendall法的酒泉市近50年气候变化特征及突变分析  

Charaeteristies of Climate Changes and Analysis of Abrupt During Last 50 Years in Jiuquan City Using Mann-kendall Method

作　　者：王宁[1] 任进军[1] 

机构地区：[1]定西师范高等专科学校地理系,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《甘肃高师学报》2013年第5期47-50,共4页Journal of Gansu Normal Colleges

摘　　要：利用酒泉市所属6个站点1959-2008年的气温和降水资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析和MannKendall等方法,分析该地区的气候变化的特征.结果表明:在全球变暖背景下,酒泉市的气温突变明显,而降水突变不明显.近50年来,酒泉市年平均气温和各个季节的平均气温呈显著变暖趋势,其中年平均气温在90年代中后期发生了突变,酒泉市东部的突变年份早于西部的突变年份;酒泉市年降水量呈微弱增长趋势,酒泉市东部的增长幅度略小于西部.这表明气候突变在酒泉市不同的地区会有不同的体现,突变时间不同步.Based on the observed data of the temperature and precpitation from six weather station from 1959-2008 in Jiquan City,the main features of climate change and abrupt changes were analyzed with amulti-year trend line,variation curve of 5 a running mean, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test.The results indicate that the abrupt change of temperature was more obvious than precipitation under the background of globalwarming in Jiquan City. In the past 50 years, annual average temperature and average temperature in each season showed a significant warming trend in Jiuquan City, and the annual average temperature in the late 90＂s was mutated, and the abrupt years in Eastern was earlier than in Western In JiuQuan;the annual precipitation showed weak growth trend in Jiuquan City, the growth of eastern slightly smaller than the west. This shows that the abrupt change of climate in different areas of Jiuquan have different expression, the mutation of asynchronous time.

关 键 词：气候变化 突变分析 Mann—Kendall法 酒泉市 

分 类 号：P458.11[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]