基于灰色系统理论的中医医院门诊工作量分析及预测研究  

Analysis and Forecasting Research of Outpatient Visits in Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：张珊珊[1] 尚莉丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽中医药大学第一附属医院,合肥230031

出　　处：《合肥学院学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期24-28,共5页Journal of Hefei University :Natural Sciences

基　　金：安徽中医药大学第一附属医院临床教学研究项目(2011lcjy004);安徽中医药大学临床科学研究基金项目(2010LC-014A)资助

摘　　要：门诊量的准确预测可以更好地为门诊医疗资源的有效配置提供决策支持,合理安排门诊资源可大大降低病患的就诊难度,增加病患的就诊意愿,同时也可在一定程度上提高医院的效益.通过提出一种两阶段灰色预测模型对安徽中医药大学第一附属医院门诊量进行预测,对第一阶段灰色预测残差进行二次分析,克服以往单一灰色预测方法所具有的局限性,提高预测精度.最后,通过一个实例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明,所给模型具有较高的预测精度.Accurate forecasting of outpatient visits in decision-making and planning for the future and is the foundation for greater and better utilization of resources and increased levels of outpatient care. Also, it can improve the profit of the hospital. This paper presents a two-step grey forecasting model to predict the outpatient visits, make second analysis on the errors produced by the first step prediction, overcome the lack of using one grey forecasting method, improve the forecasting accuracy. Finally, an example is used to validate the proposed method. Example shows that this model has higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：灰色预测 残差分析 门诊量 

分 类 号：R2-03[医药卫生—中医学]