中国省际低碳农业发展的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Provincial Low Carbon Agriculture Development

作　　者：曾大林[1,2] 纪凡荣[2] 李山峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]山东建筑大学管理工程学院,山东济南250101 [3]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第11期30-35,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71072046)

摘　　要：为推动资源节约型和环境友好型社会的发展,低碳农业成为农业发展的必然选择。虽然低碳农业理念已有推广,但是对于中国低碳农业发展状况和存在问题研究较少。本文使用2000-2010年的面板数据,选用农业碳排放模型、包络数据分析法中的SBM模型和效率收敛性模型,通过三步法实证分析了中国低碳农业的发展状况,并深入剖析了当前中国各省区低碳农业发展存在的问题。计算了中国各省区2000-2010年的农业碳排放量并进一步分析了导致各地区差异的原因,分析了中国各省区的低碳农业发展绩效及其效率的收敛性,得出以下结论:中国大部分地区的农业碳排放总量逐年增多;农业发展与碳排放存在库兹涅兹倒"U"型曲线关系;化肥和农膜是农业碳排放的主要源头;中国各省区的低碳农业发展绩效满足"波特假说"且面板数据下的效率值存在收敛性。对此,结合中国各省区的资源禀赋条件,在制度、科技、教育等方面提出促进低碳农业发展的对策与建议。In order to promote the environment-friendly and resource-saving social development,low carbon agriculture is the inevitable choice.With the popularization of the concept of low carbon agriculture,there has been few research on its development condition and current problems in China.Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2010 and using three-step method,low carbon agriculture development situation and problems between provinces in China were analyzed by Agricultural-carbon-emissions model,SBM model and Efficiency-convergence model.The agricultural carbon emissions from 2000 to 2010 in China were calculated and the causes of performance gaps between provinces were discussed.Empirical analysis of provincial low carbon agriculture development performance and its convergence was done.It is concluded that：（i） the agricultural carbon emission is increasing year by year in most provinces of China;（ii） there is an inverted Kuznets curve relation between agricultural development and agricultural carbon emissions;（iii） chemical fertilizers and agricultural films have been identified as the main source of agricultural carbon emissions; （iv） the provincial performance of low carbon agriculture meets Potter hypothesis and the efficiency value of the panel data has convergence.In view of the provincial resource condition,countermeasures and suggestions in system,technology and education,were put forward to promote the development of low carbon agriculture.

关 键 词：低碳农业 农业碳排放 收敛性 SBM模型 

分 类 号：F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]